Main Line Bidding Wars Haven't Increased Prices
We've all heard the stories this year: Main Line listings that sell in a day well above the asking price; sellers who receive 30 offers on their listings; buyers who waive inspection and mortgage contingencies in order to win the bidding war, crazy love letters to sellers, etc.
There's currently only a 1.2 month supply of houses locally. There were 20% less listings and homes sold in the first six months of this year compared to last year. It's a good guess that these factors have increased appreciation on the Main Line this year. They haven't.
The chart below shows the first six months of median appreciation for the Main Line (including Lower Merion, Radnor, Tredyffrin, and Easttown townships). Statistics were obtained through Bright MLS. The median appreciation the first half of this year was 0.74%. The median appreciation for the first half of the year for the last five years averaged 5.8%. 2017 to 2021 median appreciation was 2.8%, 3.8%, 1%, 11.7%, and 9.9% respectively. Median appreciation is a good indicator of the market because it's the price that an equal number of homes sold below and above that price. This eliminates a few very expensive or low priced houses that can skew the statistics.
So after all the multiple offers, waived inspections, and bidding wars this year, the median sales price was flat. And the lowest in five years.
The chart below shows the average appreciation for the first half of this year vs. the last five years. The first half of this year Main Line home values appreciated 4%. The average of the previous five years during the same period was 6.4%. That means that this year appreciation was 37% less than the average of the last five years. 2017 to 2021 average appreciation was 4.1%, 1%, 2.8%, 10.5%, and 13.6% respectively.